I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones. Albert Einstein
Why do we make war at all? War has been a characteristic of almost the whole of recorded history, and warlike violence preceded the establishment of the first states.Wars are always waged for something, whether it is pleasing the gods by seizing captives to execute or sacrifice, or coveting resources, or wars for belief, or extending power over others, or in the search for heightened security, or simply a war of defence against a predator. This mix of motives has remained remarkably constant.
Picture this: Chinese frustration over the status of Taiwan prompts a build-up of invasion forces. The United States is preoccupied with its own domestic political crisis. Japan anxiously watches the exchange of harsh words between China and Taiwan, wondering whether to intervene. The United Nations condemns Chinese actions, and China repudiates the censure and orders invasion, confident that a quick victory will prevent others from intervening, as Hitler hoped when he invaded Poland in 1939
Taiwan Strait, where One imperative for avoiding global war is avoiding it across the China is getting increasingly creative and ambitious in its attempts to pressure Taiwan into a 'one country, two systems' model along the lines of what the mainland has used with Hong Kong.
Kevin Rudd, the Australian ambassador to the United States, says the efforts live in a 'gray zone' between peace and war - while China continues to prepare for the latter outright. Rudd sketches out the wide 'equation of integrated deterrence' that the world will need to solve if it is to keep peace in the region.
This brings us to another anniversary: Sunday marks five years since 1 million Hong Kongers peacefully marched in the streets against a proposed law allowing the extradition of criminal suspects to the mainland. Keith Richburg watched from one of the city's raised walkways, and his description of the demonstration is inspiring, beautiful even.
Five years on, Keith is filled with 'what ifs.' Could Hong Kong have been saved from its current suffering? Five years on, will we be wondering the same about Taiwan? About the United States?
Biden hailed NATO, the 'greatest military alliance in the history of the world,' and vowed to defend Ukraine: 'To bow down to dictators is simply unthinkable. Were we to do that, it means we'd be forgetting what happened here in these hallowed beaches.Will Americans recognize their country in the dark and desperate portrait Trump painted? 'Our country is falling to pieces,' he said, and if he isn't returned to power, 'the country is finished ... You won't have a country anymore.' Trump described a nation full of 'crooked people' and serving as 'a dumping ground for the dungeons of the Third World.