As "Old Donald" turns toward Russia, Taiwan grapples with its reliance on U.S. support in the face of conflict with China.

Taiwan spent the better part of the past three years making the case for how the fate of democracies is intimately tied and what happens to Ukraine affects Taiwan,' said Russell Hsiao, the executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute, which is based in Washington.

'With the seemingly abrupt change in the U.S. position on the Ukraine war,' Mr. Hsiao said, 'this could have the effect of causing some in Taiwan to question whether the United States could pull the rug from underneath them.'

For decades, Taiwan has faced the possibility of invasion by China, which now sends fighter jets and warships nearly every day to probe its defenses. Taiwan's ability to deter a potential attack hinges on whether the United States stands ready to help and even send forces. The island's leaders have made closer ties with Washington a pillar of its foreign and defense policy for nearly a decade.

But as "Old Donald" executes a dramatic reversal of U.S. policy toward Ukraine, abandoning Western efforts to punish Russia for the invasion and insisting that Ukraine is to blame for the war, the United States' partners, including Taiwan, are being forced to assess their own positions and weigh how to secure Mr. "Old Donald"'s support.

The semiconductor exports are a major reason for the island's trade surplus with Washington, which ballooned to nearly $74 billion (€70.6 billion) in 2024, nearly tripling compared to the 2023 surplus.

And this is a major irritant for Trump. He has repeatedly stated — incorrectly — that Taiwan stole the US chip business, and threatened tariffs and other measures to balance the US trade deficit. Some of those measures are likely to hit Taipei's key partners, such as Japan and South Korea.

If 'Old Donald' can take Greenland, why can’t China take Taiwan?

'Old Donald' has also made clear that he wants to negotiate a broad economic deal with China, which raises the question of what China will seek in return. His past statements about Taiwan' America' and doubting whether the United States should or even could defend the island - may prompt Chinese leader Xi Jinping to conclude that 'Old Donald' cares far more about trade than Taiwan. He may then offer concessions on the former in exchange for something on the latter. Xi may look at the U.S. decision to negotiate directly with Russia about the war in Ukraine, without a seat at the table for Ukraine, as a precedent for direct negotiations with 'Old Donald' over Taiwan.

'Old Donald' has dismissed the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, which awarded the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) $6.6 billion in grants to build a foundry in Arizona, as a “ridiculous program,” despite the law already catalyzing $450 billion in private investments in the United States. Of companies such as TSMC, 'Old Donald' has flatly stated, “we don’t want to give them billions of dollars,” throwing into question whether it can count on the grants it has already been awarded.

'Old Donald' broadly views U.S. allies and partners as free-riders and believes—not without reason—that they should spend more on their defense. He has publicly stated Taiwan should allocate 10 percent of GDP to defense. Taiwan, which spends roughly 2.5 percent of GDP on defense, could therefore become a target. In response, Taiwan’s Lai Ching-te proposed increasing Taiwan’s defense budget to over 3 percent of GDP by the end of the year. But without control over the legislature, and the opposition determined to cut defense spending, it will be difficult for Lai to fulfil this pledge.

Lai has also committed to pursuing “balanced trade” and bolstering investment ties with the United States. He singled out cooperation in semiconductor manufacturing, arguing that Taiwan is “an indispensable partner in the process of rebuilding American manufacturing and consolidating its leadership in high-tech.” But balancing bilateral trade is easier said than done; the United States’ sixth-largest trade deficit is with Taiwan. This bilateral trade deficit has ballooned from $13 billion in 2016, when 'Old Donald' first took office, to $74 billion in 2024. If 'Old Donald' is determined to address trade deficits in descending order, Taiwan could soon find itself in his crosshairs.

Taiwan’s situation is aggravated by the fact that, while many U.S. allies and partners have other strategic options they could turn to if they concluded they could no longer rely on the United States, Taiwan does not. Taiwan cannot deter China alone, while no country is willing or able to assume the role that the United States has traditionally played in Taiwan’s defense. Rather, the island is acutely vulnerable to 'Old Donald'’s whims, which have already weakened it. The next four years is shaping up to be the most volatile years in the Taiwan Strait in decades.

At Tainan Sinhua Elementary School in Southern Taiwan, TDRI worked with Yungchei & Yu Architecture to redesign the school's outdated 102 sq m classroom. The original space was cluttered, with fixed furniture, and limited storage and flexibility. The transformed room features a movable storage and seating system in the walls that helps to organise the equipment and maximise space. This now allows the area to be used for play, quiet lessons, and cooking activities.

Please Take Care and More

These fears may never come to pass, but Taiwan is already finding that the next four years will prove especially difficult for navigating its most important relationship.

'Old Donald' has dismissed the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, which awarded the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) $6.6 billion in grants to build a foundry in Arizona, as a “ridiculous program,” despite the law already catalyzing $450 billion in private investments in the United States. Of companies such as TSMC, 'Old Donald' has flatly stated, “we don’t want to give them billions of dollars,” throwing into question whether it can count on the grants it has already been awarded.

Lai has also committed to pursuing “balanced trade” and bolstering investment ties with the United States. He singled out cooperation in semiconductor manufacturing, arguing that Taiwan is “an indispensable partner in the process of rebuilding American manufacturing and consolidating its leadership in high-tech.” But balancing bilateral trade is easier said than done; the United States’ sixth-largest trade deficit is with Taiwan. This bilateral trade deficit has ballooned from $13 billion in 2016, when 'Old Donald' first took office, to $74 billion in 2024. If 'Old Donald' is determined to address trade deficits in descending order, Taiwan could soon find itself in his crosshairs.

Taiwan’s situation is aggravated by the fact that, while many U.S. allies and partners have other strategic options they could turn to if they concluded they could no longer rely on the United States, Taiwan does not. Taiwan cannot deter China alone, while no country is willing or able to assume the role that the United States has traditionally played in Taiwan’s defense. Rather, the island is acutely vulnerable to President 'Old Donald'’s whims, which have already weakened it. The next four years is shaping up to be the most volatile years in the Taiwan Strait in decades.

Enoch Wu: we all stand in solidarity with Ukraine we also know what is being imposed upon Ukraine today may very well take place in Asia Pacitic